Monday, April 6, 2020 / by Doug Leugers
Southwest Florida Market Update- April 2020 Edition
Worried about the housing market? Worried about your job, business, or future?
We’re going to get through this together. It’s the perfect time to get more skills, training, and education to make yourself marketable, cutting edge, and relevant. If you're retired, then it’s time to be taking advantage of your favorite outside activities with a little social distancing of course! It’s not the time to sit home watching TV. Disclaimer: This doesn’t include people who are immune deficient.
What the Pandemic Means to the Housing Market
Many states put a moratorium on the sale and purchase of property and homes right now. It will lift, and probably soon (within 1-2 months). We’ve had downturns, recessions, and depressions, and bounced back from it better.
“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped, and some cutting edge search engine analysis… shows the current slowdown… is playing similarly so far.” ~John Burns Consulting
For a very short time, the housing market will slow, even stop in some locations. This may only last 3-4 weeks to 2 months. Then, it’s going to go back to normal. Within an expected 90 days, we’ll be shooting back to better than we were before.
“Even now, I’m getting calls for people to list their homes, even though they can’t even show their homes right now,” said Lona Leugers. “It’s also going to weed out the unmotivated agents, up to 50% of them, leaving a ripe market for people who work hard and are ready to take this challenge head-on.”
It’s Going To Be A Quick Return
The top companies in the world say we’re going to recover fast, and exceed where we were three months ago. Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan expect growth of the market to be back to normal by quarter three and better by quarter four.
According to PricewaterhouseCooper, who tracks businesses, if the virus restrictions ended right now, two-thirds of all businesses say they would be back to business as normal within one month. And 90% said in three months, or just in time for the holiday season, they would be back to normal.
Why Such A Big Rebound?
$2.2 Trillion dollars are being pumped back into the economy and going to be spent and used. We have great homeownership, with 37% of the homes having no mortgage, home equity, or line of credit on them. That number goes to close to 60% if you include people who have 50% or more equity in their homes.
That means money is out there.
There are only 2% of homes vacant, and they expect the demand to be double what we have to offer by the end of the year. People are going to demand new homes, a better location, and better prices. The homes are out there, and the real estate agents will be busy as soon as the world goes back to normal.
The rates for the mortgages are going to be the lowest in a very long time. At rates of 3-4% is going to encourage people to take out mortgages to own their own home.
People are going to spend, they are going to buy. We just need to get through this tough spot. Then, we’ll be poised to make more, sell more, and bounce back stronger than ever.